Argument
Base rate fallacy
Overview
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the information pertaining only to a specific case. Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.
It is also called the prosecutor's fallacy or defense attorney's fallacy when applied to the results of statistical tests (such as DNA tests) in the context of law proceedings. These terms were introduced by William C. Thompson and Edward Schumann in 1987, although it has been argued that their definition of the prosecutor's fallacy extends to many additional invalid imputations of guilt or liability that are not analyzable as errors in base rates or Bayes's theorem.
Overview adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0; see the article history for authors).
Possible passages
Found by search and not yet checked by a person; they may only mention the idea in passing.
Or, finally, the premises, of whichever kind they are, may never have been conceived in so distinct a manner as to produce any clear consciousness by what means they were arrived at; as in the case of what is called reasoning in a circle; and then the fallacy is one of Confusion.
John Stuart Mill, A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
States what Base rate fallacy is.
There are two laws, each possibly acting in the whole hundred cases, and bringing about a common effect by their conjunct operation. If the force which, being the less conspicuous of the two, is called the _disturbing_ force, prevails sufficiently over the other force in some one case, to constitute that case what is commonly called an exception, the same disturbing force probably acts as a modifying cause in many…
John Stuart Mill, A System of Logic
States what Base rate fallacy is.
XXV. The arguments proper to these excuses, being derived from the topics which we have already set forth, have been explained in our oratorical rules. But the refutation of an accusation, in which there is a repelling of a charge, which is called in Greek [Greek: stasis], is in Latin called _status_. On which there is founded, in the first place, such a defence as may effectually resist the attack. And also, in the…
Marcus Tullius Cicero, The Orations of Marcus Tullius Cicero, Volume 4
States what Base rate fallacy is.
Related ideas
Place in the tradition
Part of Scientific realism.